Guide
How Prices Work in Cricket Prediction Markets
The price you see on TipRun isn’t just a number. It’s the
market’s collective estimate of probability, expressed in cents.
The Price Is the Probability
Every outcome trades between 0¢ and 100¢:
- 62¢ = market believes 62% chance this outcome happens
- 38¢ = market believes 38% chance
- 62 + 38 = 100 — the two sides always sum to 100
How a Contract Works
Each contract pays $1.00 if the outcome happens, $0.00 if it doesn’t.
If DC wins are at 42¢ and DC actually win, every DC contract settles at $1.00. Buy 100 contracts at 42¢ ($42 total), DC win → receive $100 = $58 profit.
But you don’t need to wait. If the price moves from 42¢ to 54¢, sell at 54¢ and collect $54 = $12 profit right now.
The 100-Contract Benchmark
Every 1¢ move on 100 contracts = $1 profit.
12¢ move = $12. 20¢ move = $20. 5¢ move on 200 contracts = $10.
When you’re watching a live match and the price moves, you always know your P&L without a calculator.
Why Prices Move
| Event | Effect on Batting Team Price |
|---|---|
| Boundary in over 3 | +2–4¢ |
| Wicket (top order) | −8–15¢ |
| Dominant powerplay (60+/0) | +10–18¢ |
| Dew arrival mid-innings | +4–8¢ for chasing team |
| Death over maiden | −10–16¢ |
Maker vs Taker Orders
- Maker — limit order that rests in the book. Fee: 0%
- Taker — market order that matches immediately. Fee: 1%
For live match trades where speed matters, use taker orders. For pre-match positions, use limit orders to capture the spread and pay zero fees.
Want to see prices in action? Read How to Trade Cricket Like Stocks for a full entry / size / exit framework.
Join the waitlist at tiprun.fun.
Last updated on May 13, 2026